Mark Nuijten
Health Care Valuation, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Registration is not the sole success factor anymore for future sales and valuation of the share of company. Reimbursement procedures and the introduction of new business models like value-based pricing and risk sharing agreements, have financial consequences for biotech companies. As the future financial performance of a biotech company is directly related to the revenues of new products, an appropriate assessment of the potential sales forecast of the portfolio of forthcoming new products is an important predictor of the financial value of a pharmaceutical company. Therefore information on positive clinical trials results of a new product should be followed by a reimbursement scan and a sales forecast model including the key global markets.
The objective of this lecture is to present a financial valuation algorithm for the assessment of the futures sales of a new, innovative medicinal product based on the current reimbursement policies and future business models for reimbursement. The algorithm consists of a number pathways leading to an assessment of the market potential of the new drug: no potential, limited potential, moderate potential and expected potential. The algorithm is applied to possible new innovative products for treatment of depression and multiple sclerosis.
Keywords: valuation, reimbursement, algorithm.